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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd