A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
