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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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